The Programme

Please note that due to the COVID-19 situation, this programme will be offered in an online format in 2020.

Risk Analysis and Early Warning

The Risk Analysis and Early Warning section will provide an introduction to the scope and nature of diverse forms of risk and fundamental uncertainty. Participants will be taught by leading practitioners and international experts how to classify, analyze and predict political risk, violent conflicts, and natural disasters. Participants will be introduced to the most modern IT tools for open source intelligence and to the main methods for early warning and monitoring global crises. Practical skills also include fundamental training on selection bias, on gathering data in crisis situations and writing succinct and effective analyses.

Module 1

Understanding Risks, Grasping Uncertainty: 25-26 September, 2020

Module 2

Analysing Risks, Preparing for Uncertainty: 16-17 October, 2020

Module 3

Open Source Intelligence: Tools and Techniques: 6-7 November, 2020

Module 4

A New Information Environment: Media, Conflict and Crisis Communication:  27-28 November, 2020

Module 5

Global Crisis Monitoring, Conflict Analysis & Early Warning: 11-12 December, 2020


Sessions start Fridays from 18:30 to 19:30 CET, either with a senior policy-maker roundtable and discussion or senior expert lecture. In 2020, with this programme being organised online, these Friday sessions will be offered in a synchronous format, meaning that participants will be expected to be online during that time slot.

The first live training session will take place Saturday morning, one or two additional training sessions will be organized in the evenings of the following week. Please note that all sessions will be organized in a synchronous format, but recordings will remain available for two weeks.

*Dates mentioned above are subject to change.