The Programme

Part I: Risk Analysis and Early Warning

The Risk Analysis and Early Warning section will provide an introduction to the scope and nature of diverse forms of risk and fundamental uncertainty. Participants will be taught by leading practitioners and international experts how to classify, analyze and predict political risk, violent conflicts, and natural disasters. Participants will be introduced to the most modern IT tools for open source intelligence and to the main methods for early warning and monitoring global crises. Practical skills also include fundamental training on selection bias, on gathering data in crisis situations and writing succinct and effective analyses. The final module will provide an integrated training session and simulation during which participants will be required to apply their knowledge to the full early warning and information gathering cycle while under stress.

Module 1

Understanding Risks, Grasping Uncertainty: 6-7  September, 2019

Module 2

Analysing Risks, Preparing for Uncertainty: 27-28 September, 2019

Module 3

Open Source Intelligence: Tools and Techniques: 25-26 September, 2019

Module ,4

A New Information Environment: Media, Conflict and Crisis Communication:  8-9 November, 2019

Module 5

Global Crisis Monitoring, Conflict Analysis & Early Warning: 6-7 December, 2019


Weekend modules start Fridays between 18.00 – 20.00 either with a senior policy-maker roundtable and discussion or senior expert lecture. 

The Saturday Training Sessions run from 10.00 until 18.00 (in some cases 19.00, depending on the topic)

*Dates mentioned above are subject to change.